Obama in Europe: Facing Four Big Challenges

A European vacation it is not. Over the next week, President Barack Obama will board his plane anew nearly every day so that he can attend individual meetings with at least 17 political leaders from 11 nations and appear at summits and forums in five countries to discuss international economic recovery, national security, cyberthreats and global warming. He will have tea with a Queen (England) and a private chat with a King (Saudi Arabia) and will convene a roundtable with students (Turkey).

At each stage of the trip, whether in a castle or palace, diplomatic opportunity and danger lurk. The White House has prepared for months to ensure that the dozens of events come off without a gaffe, hitch or flub. But even years of planning could not make such events fail-safe. The world is in far too much turmoil, with widespread concern about the economic collapse, unruly voting publics and continued regional instabilities, which are sure to burst into public view. At the same time, Obama's central policy proposals, which include a significant expansion of the military effort in Afghanistan and major new deficit spending by wealthy countries, have encountered resistance from his counterparts around the world. Here is a look at four of the biggest challenges facing Obama as he heads overseas on his first major foreign trip, and how he plans to handle them. (Read "The G-20 Summit: Can This Group Save the World Economy?")

Stimulus Spending
As an economic theory, the concept is widely accepted: When consumer and corporate spending collapses, government should increase its spending to prevent a downward economic spiral. The real controversy comes with the next questions: Which government, and by how much? Economists at the International Monetary Fund have recommended globally coordinated stimulus spending of about 2% of GDP to counteract the recession. But so far, that challenge has only been accepted to varying degrees. As a group, European countries, including members of the G-20 like France and Germany, have proposed lower rates of stimulus spending, both this year and next, raising concerns at the White House.

In recent weeks, Obama and his advisers have made clear that much of the rest of the world will have to step up to the plate, especially in 2010, if the economic downturn continues. "We don't want a situation in which some countries are making extraordinary efforts and other countries aren't, with the hope that somehow the countries that are making those important steps lift everybody up," Obama said last week, in a prime-time press conference. But so far, European leaders have resisted the call for more stimulus. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she does not want to be bogged down by "artificial discussions" of fiscal stimulus, and like many of her peers would prefer to focus on fashioning a new regulatory structure to make sure the excesses and abuses that precipitated the crisis don't threaten the global financial system again. Other European leaders have also voiced skepticism over new discretionary-spending plans, arguing in part that the social safety net in Europe will automatically increase spending to handle much of the downturn.

Rather than confront this conflict head-on, both the Obama Administration and European leaders have agreed to effectively dodge the issue for now by adopting language, in a draft communiqué, that pledges all nations to take "whatever action is necessary until growth is restored." At the same time, White House aides have been arguing in recent weeks that the glass is half full, and that the real test will come only if a second round of stimulus efforts is needed. "There's been an unprecedented coming together around stimulating the global economy," says Michael Froman, one of Obama's top international economic advisers. In other words, the battle over the size of economic stimulus will be mostly fought later, when economists have a better handle on the state of the economy and how much additional stimulus is needed.

Help for the Afghanistan Surge
Obama's new plan for winning the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is sweeping and resource-intensive, and it cannot be accomplished by the U.S. alone. "As America does more, we will ask others to join us in doing their part," Obama announced last week. "From our partners and NATO allies, we will seek not simply troops but rather clearly defined capabilities: supporting the Afghan elections, training Afghan security forces, a greater civilian commitment to the Afghan people."

The details of the commitments sought by Obama have not yet been announced publicly, though Obama's team has been working closely with many allies, both in Europe and beyond, to request specific aid. "We are making very specific asks," said Michelle Flournoy, an Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, who has been working on the Afghanistan plan. Obama plans to make a public pitch for international aid both at the NATO summit in Strasbourg on Friday and at the European Union summit in Prague on Saturday.

Perhaps to head off any potential confrontations, the White House has not said that it expects any firm commitments in the coming week. On Saturday, Denis McDonough, one of Obama's national-security advisers, acknowledged the issue directly. "The challenge that we face is working closely with our friends and allies to underscore where we think we have shared challenges and where we address shared threats," he said. "And so that's obviously going to be an issue we discuss with our NATO allies."

Getting the Small Things Right
Sometimes in diplomacy, the small things matter the most. In early March, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton handed her Russian counterpart a "reset" button intended to symbolize the U.S. desire to "reset our relationship." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov looked at the gift and smiled. "You got it wrong," he said in perfect English. On the button was "peregruzka," which means overcharge or overload. Oops. Just days earlier, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had visited the White House bearing rarefied gifts: a first-edition biography of Winston Churchill and a penholder carved from the timbers of the H.M.S. Gannet. Obama responded by giving Brown a set of Hollywood-movie DVDs, sparking outrage in the British press, which took the mass-produced gift as evidence that Obama "dislikes Britain." (Only later did Brown discover that the DVDs did not even work on British formatted DVD players, yielding another round of public recriminations in England.)

Two times is a coincidence, but three times makes a trend, so Obama will have to be careful about his gift-giving in Europe. On Saturday, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs declined a British reporter's request to disclose the gift the President will give to Queen Elizabeth II. "We don't want to give away all of our good news," said Gibbs, raising the stakes even higher. Indeed gifts are not the only petty detail that can soil an international relationship. The British press has also harped on the fact that Obama once referred to the "special partnership" between Britain and the U.S., instead of the traditional evocation of the "special relationship." Such granular details manage to exhaust some on Obama's staff. "I continue to be mystified about the difference between the two words," says Gibbs.

The Star Factor
At the moment, the world is roiled, leaders are nervous, and everyone wants a piece of the media magnet that is Barack Obama. That means the White House is expecting all kinds of posturing in and around the meetings with Obama for domestic consumption in various nations. Will Russian leader Dmitri Medvedev use the meeting to highlight the U.S. role in the financial collapse? Will Chinese President Hu Jintao bring up the proposal for a new international currency to supplant the U.S. dollar? Will Mirek Topolanek, the recently displaced Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, renew his rhetoric about the "road to hell" that Obama's economic policies present when they meet in Prague?

Several European leaders who will host Obama are likely to use their meetings with the U.S. President to smooth the political waters at home. In Britain, amid rising unemployment, Brown faces daunting approval ratings and new elections in just over a year. In Germany, Angela Merkel's governing coalition is coming under increasing strain, with elections just six months away. And then there are the street protesters who will be vying for the spotlight. Large protests — against everything from capitalism to the structure of bank bailouts — are planned for both London and Strasbourg.

Although Obama can't control all the people who will be riding his public profile, his team has planned a series of events at which the President can deliver his message directly to the world public. In Strasbourg on Friday, he will host a town hall, "taking some questions from students from throughout Europe and discussing the transatlantic alliance," according to an aide. In Turkey, Obama will host a "new media" roundtable discussion with young people from Europe and Southeast Asia. The hope of the Administration is that despite the various distractions, Obama will be able to maintain message control, something he showed a talent for during last year's presidential campaign.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article

America's 10 Unhealthiest Presidents

Presidential fitness hasn't always been characteristic of the nation's commander-in-chief. Here, a retrospective of some of the least healthy presidents in American history.

President Barack Obama knows a thing or two about fitness. His well-documented gym habits and disciplined diet, has the media heralding Obama as the new face of presidential health. Of course, he isn't perfect -- the guy has been a longtime smoker (although he has resolved to quit, and has often been seen chewing Nicorette), and occasionally chows down on cheeseburgers. Still, his longtime physician issued a statement in 2008 that Obama is in "excellent health," citing his lean body mass, and normal cholesterol, blood pressure, and EKG levels.

But not all American presidents have been model specimens of health. Some of them far from it, in fact. Disease, injury, and destructive habits have run rampant in the 43 commanders-in-chief -- but while we can't totally fault George Washington for contracting malaria or smallpox (it was the 1700s, after all), we also can't really condone John Adams' habit of having bread and beer for breakfast at age 15.

Here, the 10 least healthy presidents in American history.

That's a lot of balloons

As the recession continues to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy and inauguration celebrations ramp up, a lot of people are asking: "How much will this shindig cost?"

The short answer? Likely more than $150 million — and yep, that would be the most expensive ever. (By comparison, George W. Bush's 2005 inauguration cost $42.3 million. Bill Clinton managed with $33 million in 1993.)

The long answer involves a lot of beefed-up security. For the first time, President Bush has declared an emergency in Washington, D.C. to supplement the $15 million Congress has already allotted for security measures. It's no surprise that security costs are sky-high — Barack Obama received Secret Service protection very early in his presidential run and record crowds (likely anywhere from 1.5 to 3 million people) are expected for the events. In fact, the Secret Service will be in charge of security not just for inauguration day, but for four days, starting Saturday with Obama's train ride from Philadelphia. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told the AP:

"It will be the most security, as far as I'm aware, that any inauguration's had."

Obama's much-discussed (and very cool-looking) custom Cadillac limo certainly couldn't come cheap, though we'll never really know how much it cost. Cadillac spokesman David Caldwell said the car's exact specifications are a big secret, including the safety features and production cost.

But Forbes reports it's not all flak jackets and armored cars:

To manage an event of this scale, the District of Columbia will spend a mammoth $47 million. It is not enough.... Much of the $45 million will go toward creating a dynamic Inauguration experience for the everyday visitor, not just funding exclusive events. "We don't even consider these events to be extravagant," says Linda Douglas, a spokeswoman from the Presidential Inauguration Committee. "With crowds of this size, most of our attention is being devoted to opening up as many events to the public."

The good news for taxpayers: Inaugural celebrations are paid for by the inaugural committee — and Obama has, once again, been a very successful fundraiser — at least $35 million by recent counts. Carole Florman, spokeswoman for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, told the New York Daily News:

"We're always very budget conscious. But we're sending a message to the entire world about our peaceful transition of power, and you don't want it to look like a schlock affair. It needs to be appropriate to the magnitude of events that it is."

And if you're eager to whoop it up in the same sassy fashion as our government, Washington hotels have come up with tons of ways for you to spend your money. The Washingtonian has made a list of some of the best ... and worst.

"Most unusual item in a hotel package: Round-trip airfare and hotel for four in St. Petersburg, Russia, part of the Omni Shoreham’s Live Like a President package—the trip is aimed at gaining “foreign-policy experience.” The $440,000 package also includes an in-suite dinner with entertainer Mark Russell.

Most controversial item: A puppy—in honor of Obama’s promise to get his daughters a dog — was originally part of the package deal at the Omni Shoreham but was dropped when the hotel caught heat from animal lovers. Instead, the hotel will make a donation to the Washington Humane Society."

Obama refuses to surrender Blackberry

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Despite legal and security hurdles, president-elect Barack Obama says he has a plan to retain his beloved Blackberry once he moves into the White House next week.

Interviewed by CNN Friday, Obama said the smartphone was among the tools that he would use to stay in touch with real Americans and avoid becoming trapped inside the presidential "bubble."

"I think we're going to be able to hang on to one of these. My working assumption, and this is not new, is that anything I write on an email could end up being on CNN," he said.

"So I make sure to think before I press 'send'," he said of his Blackberry, which was an ever-present fixture on his belt or in his hand on the campaign trail.

Obama did not divulge just how he will overcome legal constraints, given the requirement of the post-Watergate Presidential Records Act of 1978 to keep a record of every White House communication.

Nor did he say how he would persuade his Secret Service protectors that the Blackberry does not pose a security risk, for instance if it is hacked over the air.

But Obama, who succeeds the unpopular George W. Bush on Tuesday, said the phone was a valuable part of a wider strategy to escape the White House fishbowl.

"It's just one tool among a number of tools that I'm trying to use, to break out of the bubble, to make sure that people can still reach me," he said.

"If I'm doing something stupid, somebody in Chicago can send me an email and say, 'What are you doing?'

"I want to be able to have voices, other than the people who are immediately working for me, be able to reach out and send me a message about what's happening in America."

The mobile device dilemma may have inadvertently been solved on Friday, as Obama's Blackberry tumbled from his belt as he got out of his limousine and onto his plane in Washington.

A Secret Service agent hurried to pick up the pieces, gathering the Blackberry and battery off the frigid tarmac.

Obama to name Sunstein his regulatory czar

President-elect Barack Obama has tapped legal scholar Cass Sunstein as his administration's regulatory czar, a Democratic source said Friday.

Obama hired the Harvard law professor to run the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the administration's central approver of rules that has say over environmental policy, workplace safety issues and federal health care policies. All major agencies' rules will pass across Sunstein's desk, giving him great influence in the new administration.

His appointment was disclosed by a Democratic source who spoke on the condition of anonymnity to discuss personnel decisions.

Sunstein's office would be the main place Obama's new administration would look to reverse executive orders issued by President George W. Bush, who leaves office Tuesday. Obama aides and advisers have their eyes on Bush's policies on stem cell research and reproductive rights, but advisers have combed Bush's record and found more than 200 rules they would like to see reversed.

Independent and advocacy groups have been lobbying Obama aides aggressively to move quickly on the policies, perhaps as early as his first full day in office, Jan. 21.

Sunstein could be the face of that effort. He's a much-quoted expert on regulation and has testified about Supreme Court nominees; Harvard touted him as the most cited law professor in the country when officials hired him last year.

Harvard Law Dean Elena Kagan — who is set to become Obama's solicitor general — called him the "pre-eminent legal scholar of our time" and an "individual superstar" in her February 2008 announcement that he would join the faculty. Aside from a short stint at the Justice Department, he has never worked in government.

Sunstein previously taught at the University of Chicago, where Obama also taught law part time.

He is married to Samantha Power, a Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign policy adviser who was forced to resign from the campaign when she called Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was then an Obama rival, "a monster." Power has since rejoined Obama's circle, helping his transition team assess the State Department that Clinton would lead as secretary.

Sunstein earned two degrees from Harvard and clerked for Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall. He also advised constitution writers in Poland, South Africa and Russia.

Obama praises US Airways pilot

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama is joining those heaping praise on the pilot of US Airways Flight 1549, the craft that landed in New York City's Hudson River yet didn't lose a single passenger.

Obama called Capt. Chesley Sullenberger on Friday to tell him how proud everyone is for a heroic and graceful job in landing the damaged aircraft.

Obama's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, says that the president-elect spoke with Sullenberger for about five minutes. Obama also thanked the plane's crew and those on the scene in New York who helped ensure the safety of all 155 people aboard.

President George W. Bush also has called Sullenberger with congratulations.

The plane crashed Thursday after colliding with a flock of birds.

Obama’s Actions May Pose Biggest Risk to Presidential Honeymoon

Bill Clinton said his presidential honeymoon lasted 35 seconds. Dwight Eisenhower’s never really ended. Gerald Ford’s monthlong glow vanished overnight with his “full, free and absolute” pardon of Richard Nixon.

All new presidents enjoy that fickle grace period marked by relative harmony and low-decibel partisanship.

For Barack Obama, the question is how long his honeymoon will endure and how much of his ambitious agenda he can achieve before it ends, perhaps -- if history is a guide -- as a result of his own actions.

“New presidents abort their own honeymoons,” said political analyst Charlie Cook. “There’s a residual goodwill that comes into office with them, and it stays with them until they end it by making mistakes.”

Presidential honeymoons provide Americans a first in-depth look at their newly elected leader while granting him a chance to set a tone and style that is likely to carry long-term consequences for the country and his presidency.

“First impressions tend to be lasting ones,” said Thomas Mann, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution, a research organization in Washington. “Mistakes made early can certainly weaken a president -- not necessarily destroy his presidency but slow him down.”

War, Economy

There are emerging hairline cracks that foreshadow turbulence. These include questions about back taxes owed by Treasury Secretary-designee Timothy Geithner and a rift between Obama and congressional Democrats over his economic stimulus package. The new president has already been forced to flip-flop over the status of Roland Burris, his Senate successor, whose appointment he initially opposed.

In addition, Obama, 47, inherits two wars and what is billed as the worst economic climate since the Great Depression. Still, he is poised to enjoy a sweeter honeymoon than most of his predecessors.

“Obama has the chance to have the biggest honeymoon we’ve seen in decades,” said David Gergen, a professor of government at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Harvard University who worked for Presidents Nixon, Ford, Ronald Reagan and Clinton.

High Ratings

Post-election polls consistently show high approval ratings for Obama. In a survey released yesterday by the Washington- based Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 79 percent of Americans, including 59 percent of Republicans, said they have a favorable impression of the president-elect. Bush’s personal favorability just before he took office in 2001 was 60 percent, and Clinton’s was 69 percent shortly before he was inaugurated in 1993, said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

When a new president takes office, “Congress, at least the opposing party, is usually a bit reticent at first to take him on,” said George C. Edwards, a historian at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas.

There also is “an afterglow from the election, so the public is generally likely to be more supportive.”

Thus, in the face of the twin challenges of war and fixing the economy, most Americans -- including the president he will replace -- are rooting for Obama to succeed.

“We wish the president-elect and his team all the best,” President George W. Bush told reporters at the end of his final Cabinet meeting Jan. 13. “It is our genuine wish that they do well.”

2 Phases

While every presidency is unique, the first year tends to have two phases, Gergen said.

The first is the traditional First 100 Days, set by Franklin Roosevelt. The other runs from the inauguration to the congressional summer vacation.

Many lawmakers return in the autumn ready to showcase their differences with the president, driven in part by their own re- election races a year later. After those midterm elections, a new presidential campaign season kicks into gear, making bipartisan cooperation on big issues more difficult still.

“August has been cruel to a great many presidents,” Gergen said.

The lesson is “strike early and focus on your high priorities,” Edwards said.

Presidents at times seem all-but obsessed with honeymoons - - or the lack thereof.

Within days of taking office in 1974, Ford told Congress: “I do not want a honeymoon with you. I want a good marriage.” His pardon of Nixon a month later prompted a 30-point drop in his public-approval rating.

Nixon Pardon

As a consequence, “Ford’s ability to get results plunged,” said Fred Greenstein, a historian at Princeton University in New Jersey.

Reagan joked shortly after his 1984 re-election, “If I’ve had a honeymoon with the Congress, romance has been dead in Washington for four years.”

Reagan’s 1981 honeymoon was already stalled by late February, but his popularity soared after surviving an assassination attempt in March.

“The shooting gave him an enormous boost,” said Gergen, who was a top Reagan aide. “It was a significant turning point in his presidency.”

‘Banana Peel’

Historians said Clinton had only himself to blame for his short-lived honeymoon, which was caused by such distractions as the uproar over his gays-in-the-military policy, a $200 haircut aboard Air Force One and snafus with top Cabinet appointments. Gergen, who later served Clinton as a counselor, said he slipped on “one banana peel after another.”

Clinton eventually recovered and went on to outwit the congressional Republicans in a budget dispute that led to a government shutdown.

Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson made the most of their honeymoons: FDR with the New Deal and LBJ with the Great Society.

“Roosevelt got a huge amount of legislation enacted and was overwhelmingly re-elected,” Greenstein said. “Then he brought it all to a crashing end when he made his Supreme Court- packing proposal.” This didn’t prevent him from being elected to four terms, however.

Johnson enjoyed two honeymoons. The first was in 1963, when as vice-president he ascended to the presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. The second was in 1964, when he won the election by a landslide. Public disenchantment with the Vietnam War eventually led Johnson to not seek re-election in 1968.

Eisenhower Record

Eisenhower enjoyed the longest honeymoon. “There was not single month in which more people disapproved of his conduct than approved,” Greenstein said.

For Obama, the political goodwill and high public expectations may be a double-edged sword.

“Sometimes, efforts to move quickly before the pieces are in place can end up doing more harm,” Mann said. “A more measured way can lead to some positive impressions and more modest victories that can actually increase one’s political capital.”

Lawrence Jacobs, director of the center for the study of politics and governance at the University of Minnesota, said he doubts Obama’s honeymoon will break any longevity records.

“The deep-seated differences between the parties -- and the philosophical differences within the Democratic Party -- remain,” he said. “And within a short period of time, the differences will be front and center again.”